Super Crunchers Torrent
Balkinizationan unanticipated consequence ofJack M. On Monday, March11, President Trump released his proposal for the last meaningful budget of hisfirst term. It will cover the periodfrom October 1, 2019, until five weeks before the 2020 presidential election.
To avoid either a pre-election governmentshutdown or embarrassing pre-election concessions, the President and Congresswill almost certainly agree to a continuing resolution to cover thepre-election period, with the final 2021 budget’s contours determined by theelection’s victors. This is, therefore, PresidentTrump’s final opportunity to insert his priorities into law during this term. The popular mediahas done a fair job of capturing the broad themes: large increases in defense spending, making upper-income2017 tax cuts permanent, and a partial offset of those costs with dramatic cutsin programs assisting low- and moderate-income people. President Trump also manages, in onedocument, to breach all three parts of his campaignnot to support cuts in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The purpose of this post is to provide a fewspecifics and to discuss what comes next, procedurally and politically. The CongressionalBudget Act makes the President’s submission of a budget proposal the de facto start of the annual budgetingprocess. It was due in early February,but the partial federal government shutdown made that impossible as budgetproposals build on the current year’s budget, which was still unresolved.
Historically, presidents’ budget proposals havebeen a mix of serious proposals for the more mundane “housekeeping” parts ofthe federal budget and aspirational proposals that the President knows Congressis unlikely to accept as-is. The mixbetween practical and ideological proposals has shifted over the years.
A few customary groundrules have applied to presidential budget proposals, although some of these normsare becoming quite frayed. The president’sbudget proposal is typically the high water mark for his party’sinitiatives: the opposing party citesthe president’s budget much as trial lawyers cite party admissions to rejectout of hand any proposals going farther.
This practice has discouraged realistic presidential budget proposals. Thus, during the Clinton and ObamaAdministrations, congressional Democrats could expect no traction for socialinitiatives not in that year’s presidential budget proposal. President Trump has not felt bound by thistradition: his proposals for a borderwall, for example, evolved repeatedly from last year’s budget proposal.
Since the BudgetControl Act of 2011, presidential budgets also have had to take a position onwhether they will adhere to the draconian caps on annual appropriations (“discretionaryspending”) that that law and its subsequent sequestration imposed. No president or Congress since then has founda palatable way to operate the federal government within those fundingconstraints. As a result, Congress haspassed and presidents have signed a series of bipartisan deals increasing thosecaps for two years at a time, offsetting part of the cost with cuts in domesticentitlement programs.
The most recentsuch deal, signed by President Trump, expires at the end of the current fiscalyear. Even by thestandards of recent presidential budgets, President Trump’s proposal is quiteextreme. He does not propose newlegislation raising the caps on discretionary spending, which would forceCongress to write appropriations bills to fit within the “sequestration”limits. This wouldan 11% average cut in non-defense discretionary (NDD) spending in 2020 belowthe current year’s levels after adjusting for inflation.
Because he proposes large increases for theDepartment of Homeland Security, which falls within the NDD category, theactual cut he would require from other programs would be even greater. The President’s budget assumes furtherreductions in NDD spending in future years: by 2021, it would be the smallest share of the economy since the HooverAdministration and over ten years it would drop 40% after adjusting for inflation. Apparently recognizing that these cuts arepolitically untenable, the Administration isthat they are much smaller than they are. Although PresidentTrump’s budget purports also to apply the comparably severe caps on defensespending, it evades the effect of those caps with a giant accounting gimmick.
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It transfers substantial amounts of regularPentagon spending into a special category, Overseas Contingency Operations(OCO), that is exempt from the caps. OCOwas intended to pay the special costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq on anemergency basis. The Pentagon has longreclassified parts of its regular operating budget as OCO, but President Trump’sconverts this stream of extra Pentagon funding into a raging torrent: defense spending designated as OCO would jumpfrom $69 billion to $165 billion in a single year. This obliterates the Budget Control Act’scommitment to have defense and non-defense spending subject to parallelconstraints. Both Mick Mulvaney, thePresident’s Chief of Staff and former budget director, and former House SpeakerPaul Ryanmuch more moderate abuses of the OCO device when they were in Congress.
Even the President’sproposals for non-defense discretionary spending do not appear designed to betaken seriously. For example, he would$5 billion from the National Instituted of Health, which enjoy broad bipartisansupport.
He would terminate low-incomeenergy assistance and the Community Services Block Grant, which funds theremnants of War on Poverty service programs. Even Republican Congresses have ignored deep cutsproposed for these programs in the past.
He wouldthe Job Corps and dislocated worker programs serving the very people for whom heclaims his trade war is being fought. Fewin Congress will want to be associated with those cuts. Most of the President’ssupposed domestic initiatives in the budget also are gimmicks. He boasts of a new fund of money forinfrastructure but appears to cut transportation and housing funds by evenmore, resulting in a net reduction in federal infrastructure spending.
He claims to be launching major effortsagainst the and HIV, but he would deeply cut Medicaid – the primary source oftreatment funding for many fighting addition and HIV infection – with theresult that fewer total resources would be available. Critics are nodoubt correct that this budget proposal will be “dead on arrival” inCongress: almost all presidential budgetproposals are. It nonetheless remainssignificant for several reasons. First,it provides a comprehensive statement of this Administration’s values and priorities. It makes the 2017 upper-income tax cutspermanent – at aof $275 billion in 2028 alone – at the same time it would30% reductions in food stamps as well as deep cuts in Social SecurityDisability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income for the elderly and disabled,Medicaid, and family income support.
Super Crunchers Ian Ayres
Finally, thebudget proposal’s insistence on adhering to the sequestration spending caps,however disingenuous, suggests that the Administration will resist negotiatinga new bipartisan agreement to raise those caps. Neither party’s appropriators are likely to want to vote for bills containingsuch draconian cuts.
The House likelywill pass a “deeming resolution” waiving points of order against consideringbills over the caps. Senator McConnelllikely will be reluctant to do the same so the Senate may be unable to bringappropriations bills to the floor. Inany event, neither chamber probably can pass appropriations bills at thesequestration levels, and without such legislation appropriations above that willresult in new automatic across-the-board budget cuts.
Super Crunchers Summary
An international sensation—and still the talk of the relevant blogosphere—this Wall Street Journal and New York Times business bestseller examines the “power” in numbers. Today more than ever, number crunching affects your life in ways you might not even imagine. Intuition and experience are no longer enough to make the grade. In order to succeed—even survive—in our data-based world, you need to become statistically literate.Cutting-edge organizations are already crunching increasingly larger databases to find the unseen connections among seemingly unconnected things to predict human behavior with staggeringly accurate results.
From Internet sites like Google and Amazon that use filters to keep track of your tastes and your purchasing history, to insurance companies and government agencies that every day make decisions affecting your life, the brave new world of the super crunchers is happening right now. No one who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Ian Ayres’s engrossing and enlightening book.Rent Super Crunchers 1st edition (9734) today, or search our site for other textbooks by Ian Ayres.Every textbook comes with a 21-day 'Any Reason' guarantee.Published by Bantam.Need help ASAP? We have you covered with 24/7 instant online tutoring. Connect with one of our now.
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